fix: solar forecast charging

custom_components/easee_solar_charging/config_flow.py

@@ -10,8 +10,15 @@ from .const import (
     CONF_CHARGER_ID,
     CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS,
     CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
     CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE,
     CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES,
+    CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
+    CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
     CONF_DEVICE_ID,
     CONF_EV_CHARGING_SENSOR,
     CONF_HOUSE_LOAD_SENSOR,
@@ -43,11 +50,21 @@ _CHARGING_PROFILE_SELECTOR = selector.SelectSelector(
         options=[
             selector.SelectOptionDict(value=CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE, label="Conservative"),
             selector.SelectOptionDict(value=CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS, label="All Surplus"),
+            selector.SelectOptionDict(value=CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST, label="Forecast look-ahead"),
+            selector.SelectOptionDict(value=CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE, label="Forecast surplus"),
         ],
         mode=selector.SelectSelectorMode.DROPDOWN,
     )
 )
 
+_CONFIDENCE_SELECTOR = selector.NumberSelector(
+    selector.NumberSelectorConfig(min=50, max=100, step=5, unit_of_measurement="%", mode=selector.NumberSelectorMode.SLIDER)
+)
+
+_LOOKAHEAD_SELECTOR = selector.NumberSelector(
+    selector.NumberSelectorConfig(min=5, max=120, step=5, unit_of_measurement="min", mode=selector.NumberSelectorMode.BOX)
+)
+
 _POWER_SENSOR_SELECTOR = selector.EntitySelector(
     selector.EntitySelectorConfig(domain="sensor", device_class="power")
 )
@@ -103,6 +120,19 @@ def _options_schema(hass: HomeAssistant, current: dict) -> vol.Schema:
             CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES,
             default=current.get(CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES, DEFAULT_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES),
         ): _DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_SELECTOR,
+        # ── Forecast profiles ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+        vol.Optional(CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR): selector.EntitySelector(
+            selector.EntitySelectorConfig(integration="forecast_solar")
+        ),
+        vol.Required(
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+            default=current.get(CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE, DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE),
+        ): _CONFIDENCE_SELECTOR,
+        vol.Required(
+            CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
+            default=current.get(CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES, DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES),
+        ): _LOOKAHEAD_SELECTOR,
+        # ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
         vol.Optional(CONF_NOTIFY_TARGET): _notify_selector(_notify_services(hass)),
     })
 

custom_components/easee_solar_charging/const.py

@@ -32,8 +32,18 @@ DEFAULT_STOP_GRACE_MINUTES = 5
 CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE = "charging_profile"
 CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE = "conservative"
 CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS = "all_surplus"
+CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST = "forecast"
+CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE = "forecast_conservative"
 DEFAULT_CHARGING_PROFILE = CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE
 
+# Forecast profile settings
+CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR = "forecast_sensor"
+CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE = "forecast_confidence"       # percent, 0-100
+CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES = "forecast_lookahead_minutes"
+
+DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE = 80   # percent
+DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES = 30
+
 CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES = "dead_band_resync_minutes"
 DEFAULT_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES = 1
 

custom_components/easee_solar_charging/coordinator.py

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 from collections import deque
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 import logging
+from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
 
 from homeassistant.config_entries import ConfigEntry
 from homeassistant.core import HomeAssistant, callback
@@ -13,7 +14,14 @@ from homeassistant.helpers.update_coordinator import DataUpdateCoordinator, Upda
 from .const import (
     CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS,
     CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
     CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE,
+    CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
+    CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
     CONF_CHARGER_ID,
     CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES,
     CONF_DEVICE_ID,
@@ -112,6 +120,75 @@ class EaseeSolarCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator):
         minutes = self._entry.options.get(CONF_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES, DEFAULT_DEAD_BAND_RESYNC_MINUTES)
         return timedelta(minutes=minutes)
 
+    def _w_at_lookahead(self, watts: dict) -> float | None:
+        """Find the watt value in a {timestamp: W} dict nearest to now + lookahead_minutes.
+
+        Handles both naive local-time strings ("YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS") and
+        ISO strings with timezone offset, plus datetime keys serialised by HA.
+        """
+        lookahead = self._entry.options.get(CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES, DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES)
+        try:
+            tz = ZoneInfo(self.hass.config.time_zone)
+        except Exception:
+            tz = timezone.utc
+        target = datetime.now(tz) + timedelta(minutes=lookahead)
+
+        best_delta: float | None = None
+        best_w: float | None = None
+        for ts_key, w in watts.items():
+            try:
+                if isinstance(ts_key, datetime):
+                    ts = ts_key if ts_key.tzinfo else ts_key.replace(tzinfo=tz)
+                else:
+                    ts = datetime.fromisoformat(str(ts_key))
+                    if ts.tzinfo is None:
+                        ts = ts.replace(tzinfo=tz)
+            except ValueError:
+                continue
+            delta = abs((ts - target).total_seconds())
+            if best_delta is None or delta < best_delta:
+                best_delta = delta
+                best_w = float(w)
+        return best_w
+
+    def _get_raw_forecast_w(self) -> float | None:
+        """Return raw forecast power from the Forecast.Solar HA integration sensor.
+
+        Prefers the 'watts' attribute (dict of period→W) for a true look-ahead.
+        Falls back to the sensor state value when the attribute is absent.
+        """
+        entity_id = self._entry.options.get(CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR)
+        if not entity_id:
+            return None
+        state = self.hass.states.get(entity_id)
+        if state is None or state.state in ("unknown", "unavailable"):
+            return None
+
+        watts = state.attributes.get("watts")
+        if isinstance(watts, dict) and watts:
+            w = self._w_at_lookahead(watts)
+            if w is not None:
+                return w
+
+        try:
+            return float(state.state)
+        except ValueError:
+            _LOGGER.warning("Forecast sensor %s has non-numeric state: %s", entity_id, state.state)
+            return None
+
+    def _get_adjusted_forecast_w(self) -> float | None:
+        raw = self._get_raw_forecast_w()
+        if raw is None:
+            return None
+        confidence = self._entry.options.get(CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE, DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE) / 100
+        adjusted = raw * confidence
+        lookahead = self._entry.options.get(CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES, DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES)
+        _LOGGER.debug(
+            "Forecast %.0f W × %.0f%% confidence = %.0f W (lookahead %d min)",
+            raw, confidence * 100, adjusted, lookahead,
+        )
+        return adjusted
+
     def _get_solar_excess_w(self) -> tuple[float | None, float | None, float | None, float | None]:
         profile = self._entry.options.get(CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE, DEFAULT_CHARGING_PROFILE)
         production = self._rolling_average(self._production_sensor)
@@ -122,10 +199,35 @@ class EaseeSolarCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator):
             return None, None, house_load, ev_charging
 
         if profile == CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS:
-            # Allocate all solar production to EV; house load draws from grid.
             surplus = production
+
+        elif profile == CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST:
+            # Conservative surplus first; if below threshold, check whether
+            # the confidence-adjusted forecast justifies an early start.
+            actual = production - house_load - ev_charging
+            forecast = self._get_adjusted_forecast_w()
+            if forecast is not None and forecast > actual:
+                _LOGGER.debug(
+                    "Forecast profile: using forecast %.0f W instead of actual %.0f W",
+                    forecast, actual,
+                )
+                surplus = forecast
             else:
-            assert profile == CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE
+                surplus = actual
+
+        elif profile == CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE:
+            # Like Forecast but subtracts current house load and EV draw from the
+            # forecast value — earlier start than Conservative, more cautious than
+            # plain Forecast which ignores current consumption entirely.
+            forecast = self._get_adjusted_forecast_w()
+            if forecast is not None:
+                surplus = forecast - house_load - ev_charging
+            else:
+                surplus = production - house_load - ev_charging
+
+        else:  # CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE (default) or unrecognised value
+            if profile != CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE:
+                _LOGGER.warning("Unknown charging profile %r — falling back to conservative", profile)
             surplus = production - house_load - ev_charging
 
         return surplus, production, house_load, ev_charging
@@ -233,6 +335,13 @@ class EaseeSolarCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator):
     async def _async_update_data(self) -> dict:
         try:
             solar_excess_w, production_w, house_load_w, ev_charging_w = self._get_solar_excess_w()
+
+            if not self._charger_allows_control() and not self._charger_is_sleeping():
+                # Disconnected / error / unknown — no amps to calculate.
+                # Clear any running grace period so it doesn't bleed into the next session.
+                self._below_threshold_since = None
+                target_current_a = 0
+            else:
                 raw_target = (
                     solar_excess_to_charger_current(solar_excess_w)
                     if self.solar_charging_enabled and solar_excess_w is not None

custom_components/easee_solar_charging/translations/en.json

@@ -17,12 +17,18 @@
           "charging_profile": "Charging profile",
           "stop_grace_minutes": "Stop grace period",
           "dead_band_resync_minutes": "Dead-band resync interval",
+          "forecast_sensor": "Forecast.Solar sensor",
+          "forecast_confidence": "Forecast confidence",
+          "forecast_lookahead_minutes": "Look-ahead window",
           "notify_target": "Notification target"
         },
         "data_description": {
-          "charging_profile": "Conservative: charge only on true solar surplus (production − house load − current EV draw). All Surplus: allocate all solar production to the EV; house load draws from the grid.",
+          "charging_profile": "Conservative: charge only on true solar surplus (production − house load − current EV draw). All Surplus: allocate all solar production to the EV; house load draws from the grid. Forecast look-ahead: start charging early using the full confidence-adjusted forecast as the surplus. Forecast surplus: same but subtracts current house load and EV draw — more cautious early start.",
           "stop_grace_minutes": "How many minutes to keep charging after solar excess drops below the minimum threshold, before stopping the charger.",
           "dead_band_resync_minutes": "How often to re-send the current charging level when within the dead-band, to track gradual solar drift.",
+          "forecast_sensor": "Pick a power sensor from your Forecast.Solar integration. If the sensor exposes a 'watts' attribute the look-ahead window is used to find the matching period; otherwise the sensor state is used directly.",
+          "forecast_confidence": "Scale the forecast value by this factor before comparing to the charging threshold. At 80%, a 7000 W forecast is treated as 5600 W.",
+          "forecast_lookahead_minutes": "How many minutes ahead to look in the Forecast.Solar power curve when deciding to start early.",
           "notify_target": "Name of a notify service to receive start/stop alerts (e.g. mobile_app_my_phone). Leave empty to disable notifications."
         }
       }

tests/conftest.py

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import sys
+from collections import deque
 from datetime import timedelta
 from unittest.mock import MagicMock
 
@@ -39,6 +40,7 @@ for _mod in [
     "homeassistant.helpers",
     "homeassistant.helpers.device_registry",
     "homeassistant.helpers.entity_platform",
+    "homeassistant.helpers.event",
     "homeassistant.helpers.restore_state",
     "homeassistant.helpers.selector",
     "voluptuous",
@@ -59,7 +61,9 @@ from custom_components.easee_solar_charging.const import (  # noqa: E402
 )
 
 CHARGER_ID = "ehxt9pqp"
-SOLAR_SENSOR = "sensor.solar_excess"
+PRODUCTION_SENSOR = "sensor.solar_production"
+HOUSE_SENSOR = "sensor.house_load"
+EV_SENSOR = "sensor.ev_charging"
 
 
 class FakeCoordinator(EaseeSolarCoordinator):
@@ -68,8 +72,16 @@ class FakeCoordinator(EaseeSolarCoordinator):
     def __init__(self, options: dict | None = None) -> None:
         # Skip DataUpdateCoordinator.__init__ — not needed for logic-only tests.
         self.hass = MagicMock()
+        self.hass.config.time_zone = "UTC"
         self.charger_id = CHARGER_ID
-        self._solar_excess_sensor = SOLAR_SENSOR
+        self._production_sensor = PRODUCTION_SENSOR
+        self._house_load_sensor = HOUSE_SENSOR
+        self._ev_charging_sensor = EV_SENSOR
+        self._samples: dict = {
+            PRODUCTION_SENSOR: deque(),
+            HOUSE_SENSOR: deque(),
+            EV_SENSOR: deque(),
+        }
         self._device_id = None
         self._last_sent_current = None
         self._last_sent_at = None
@@ -87,8 +99,9 @@ def coord() -> FakeCoordinator:
     return FakeCoordinator()
 
 
-def make_state(value: str) -> MagicMock:
+def make_state(value: str, attributes: dict | None = None) -> MagicMock:
-    """Return a minimal HA state mock with the given state string."""
+    """Return a minimal HA state mock with the given state string and optional attributes."""
     s = MagicMock()
     s.state = value
+    s.attributes = attributes or {}
     return s

tests/test_coordinator.py

@@ -145,41 +145,6 @@ class TestApplyStopHysteresis:
         assert result == 0
 
 
-# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# _get_solar_excess_w
-# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-class TestGetSolarExcessW:
-    def test_valid_numeric_state(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("3500.5")
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() == 3500.5
-
-    def test_integer_state(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("5000")
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() == 5000.0
-
-    def test_unavailable_returns_none(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("unavailable")
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() is None
-
-    def test_unknown_returns_none(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("unknown")
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() is None
-
-    def test_missing_entity_returns_none(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = None
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() is None
-
-    def test_non_numeric_returns_none(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("not_a_number")
-        assert coord._get_solar_excess_w() is None
-
-    def test_queries_correct_entity(self, coord):
-        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state("1000")
-        coord._get_solar_excess_w()
-        coord.hass.states.get.assert_called_once_with(coord._solar_excess_sensor)
-
-
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # _charger_allows_control
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

tests/test_forecast.py

@@ -0,0 +1,473 @@
+"""
+Unit tests for forecast-related coordinator methods.
+
+Covers: _w_at_lookahead, _get_raw_forecast_w, _get_adjusted_forecast_w,
+and the forecast profile branches of _get_solar_excess_w.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+import pytest
+from freezegun import freeze_time
+
+from tests.conftest import FakeCoordinator, make_state
+from custom_components.easee_solar_charging.const import (
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+    CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
+    CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE,
+    CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
+    CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE,
+    DEFAULT_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES,
+    MIN_CHARGER_CURRENT_A,
+    PHASES,
+    VOLTAGE_V,
+)
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Helpers
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+_FREEZE = "2024-06-15 10:00:00"   # UTC; used by freezegun-based tests
+_FREEZE_DT = datetime(2024, 6, 15, 10, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+_FORECAST_ENTITY = "sensor.forecast_solar_power_production_now"
+
+
+def _coord(options: dict | None = None) -> FakeCoordinator:
+    return FakeCoordinator(options=options)
+
+
+def _utc_str(dt: datetime) -> str:
+    """ISO string with explicit UTC offset."""
+    return dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S+00:00")
+
+
+def _naive_str(dt: datetime) -> str:
+    """Naive local-time string — the raw Forecast.Solar API format."""
+    return dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+
+
+def _set_rolling(
+    coord: FakeCoordinator,
+    production: float | None,
+    house: float = 0.0,
+    ev: float = 0.0,
+) -> None:
+    """Patch _rolling_average on coord with fixed values for all three sensors."""
+    sensor_map = {
+        coord._production_sensor: production,
+        coord._house_load_sensor: house,
+        coord._ev_charging_sensor: ev,
+    }
+    coord._rolling_average = lambda entity_id: sensor_map.get(entity_id)
+
+
+def _set_forecast_state(coord: FakeCoordinator, value: str, attributes: dict | None = None) -> None:
+    """Make coord.hass.states.get return the given state for the forecast sensor."""
+    coord.hass.states.get.return_value = make_state(value, attributes)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# _w_at_lookahead
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class TestWAtLookahead:
+    """Timestamp-nearest lookup in a Forecast.Solar watts dict."""
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_exact_match_returns_correct_watts(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        watts = {
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT):                        1000.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 5000.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=60)): 7000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 5000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_picks_entry_nearest_to_target(self):
+        """When no exact match, the closest timestamp wins."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        # +20 min is 10 min before target; +50 min is 20 min after — +20 wins
+        watts = {
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=20)): 3000.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=50)): 6000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 3000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_naive_string_keys_treated_as_utc(self):
+        """Naive 'YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS' strings get the local timezone (UTC here)."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        target = _FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)
+        watts = {
+            _naive_str(target - timedelta(hours=1)): 1000.0,
+            _naive_str(target):                       5000.0,
+            _naive_str(target + timedelta(hours=1)):  3000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 5000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_datetime_object_keys(self):
+        """datetime objects as dict keys are handled directly."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        target = _FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)
+        watts = {
+            _FREEZE_DT:                      1000.0,
+            target:                          8000.0,
+            _FREEZE_DT + timedelta(hours=1): 5000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 8000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_empty_dict_returns_none(self):
+        coord = _coord()
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead({}) is None
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_malformed_keys_are_skipped(self):
+        """Unparseable timestamp strings are silently skipped."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        watts = {
+            "not-a-timestamp":                            9999.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 5000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 5000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_respects_lookahead_minutes_option(self):
+        """Different lookahead values select different entries."""
+        coord_30 = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        coord_60 = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 60})
+        watts = {
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 4000.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=60)): 8000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord_30._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 4000.0
+        assert coord_60._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 8000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_default_lookahead_is_30_minutes(self):
+        """With no option set, the default lookahead is 30 minutes."""
+        coord = _coord(options={})
+        watts = {
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 5000.0,
+            _utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=60)): 9000.0,
+        }
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 5000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_invalid_timezone_falls_back_to_utc(self):
+        """An unresolvable timezone string falls back to UTC without crashing."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        coord.hass.config.time_zone = "Not/AReal_Timezone"
+        watts = {_utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 5000.0}
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 5000.0
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_single_entry_is_always_returned(self):
+        """A dict with only one entry always returns that entry."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30})
+        watts = {_utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(hours=5)): 2500.0}
+        assert coord._w_at_lookahead(watts) == 2500.0
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# _get_raw_forecast_w
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class TestGetRawForecastW:
+    """Reading the raw (pre-confidence) forecast value from a HA sensor."""
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_no_sensor_configured(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={})
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_sensor_state_unavailable(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "unavailable")
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_sensor_state_unknown(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "unknown")
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_sensor_entity_missing(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = None
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() is None
+
+    @freeze_time(_FREEZE)
+    def test_uses_watts_attribute_for_lookahead(self):
+        """When the sensor has a 'watts' attribute, uses it for the lookahead lookup."""
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_LOOKAHEAD_MINUTES: 30,
+        })
+        watts_attr = {_utc_str(_FREEZE_DT + timedelta(minutes=30)): 6500.0}
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "3000", {"watts": watts_attr})
+        # Should return the lookahead value (6500), not the sensor state (3000)
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() == 6500.0
+
+    def test_falls_back_to_sensor_state_when_no_watts_attribute(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "4200.5")
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() == 4200.5
+
+    def test_falls_back_to_sensor_state_when_watts_attribute_is_empty(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "3000.0", {"watts": {}})
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() == 3000.0
+
+    def test_returns_none_for_non_numeric_state_with_no_watts_attr(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "banana")
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_ignores_non_dict_watts_attribute(self):
+        """A 'watts' attribute that is not a dict is ignored; state is used instead."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "5000.0", {"watts": "not-a-dict"})
+        assert coord._get_raw_forecast_w() == 5000.0
+
+    def test_state_value_is_returned_as_float(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "7000")
+        result = coord._get_raw_forecast_w()
+        assert result == 7000.0
+        assert isinstance(result, float)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# _get_adjusted_forecast_w
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class TestGetAdjustedForecastW:
+    """Confidence factor is applied to the raw forecast value."""
+
+    def test_default_confidence_is_80_percent(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "10000.0")
+        # 10 000 × 0.80 = 8 000
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() == pytest.approx(8000.0)
+
+    def test_custom_confidence_is_applied(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 60,
+        })
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "5000.0")
+        # 5 000 × 0.60 = 3 000
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() == pytest.approx(3000.0)
+
+    def test_100_percent_confidence_returns_raw_value(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "7000.0")
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() == pytest.approx(7000.0)
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_sensor_unavailable(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY})
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "unavailable")
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_returns_none_when_no_sensor_configured(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={})
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() is None
+
+    def test_50_percent_confidence_halves_the_value(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 50,
+        })
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "8000.0")
+        assert coord._get_adjusted_forecast_w() == pytest.approx(4000.0)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# _get_solar_excess_w — forecast profile branches
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class TestForecastLookaheadProfile:
+    """CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST: use forecast when it exceeds actual surplus."""
+
+    def test_uses_forecast_when_higher_than_actual(self):
+        """Forecast beats actual → forecast value used as surplus."""
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=2000.0, house=500.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "8000.0")   # 8000 > actual (1500) → wins
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(8000.0)
+
+    def test_uses_actual_when_higher_than_forecast(self):
+        """Actual surplus beats forecast → actual used (avoids reducing charge)."""
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=9000.0, house=500.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "3000.0")   # 3000 < actual (8500)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(8500.0)
+
+    def test_falls_back_to_actual_when_no_sensor_configured(self):
+        """Without a forecast sensor, behaves identically to Conservative."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=5000.0, house=1000.0, ev=500.0)
+        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = None
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(3500.0)
+
+    def test_confidence_reduces_forecast_before_comparison(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 80,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=1000.0, house=0.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "10000.0")   # 10 000 × 0.80 = 8 000 > actual (1 000)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(8000.0)
+
+    def test_when_both_below_threshold_actual_is_returned(self):
+        """Below-threshold values flow to hysteresis logic — surplus is still the max."""
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=500.0, house=0.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "300.0")   # forecast (300) < actual (500)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        # actual wins because 500 > 300
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(500.0)
+
+    def test_returns_full_four_tuple(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=6000.0, house=1000.0, ev=200.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "4000.0")
+        surplus, production, house, ev = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert production == pytest.approx(6000.0)
+        assert house == pytest.approx(1000.0)
+        assert ev == pytest.approx(200.0)
+        # actual (4800) > forecast (4000) → actual
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(4800.0)
+
+
+class TestForecastSurplusProfile:
+    """CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE: forecast_adj − house_load − ev_charging."""
+
+    def test_subtracts_loads_from_forecast(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=2000.0, house=1500.0, ev=500.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "8000.0")
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        # 8 000 − 1 500 − 500 = 6 000
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(6000.0)
+
+    def test_falls_back_to_conservative_when_no_sensor(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=5000.0, house=1000.0, ev=200.0)
+        coord.hass.states.get.return_value = None
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(3800.0)
+
+    def test_confidence_applied_before_subtracting_loads(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 80,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=1000.0, house=1000.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "10000.0")
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        # (10 000 × 0.80) − 1 000 − 0 = 7 000
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(7000.0)
+
+    def test_surplus_can_be_negative(self):
+        """A large house load can push forecast surplus below zero."""
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=1000.0, house=5000.0, ev=0.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "4000.0")
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(-1000.0)
+
+    def test_returns_full_four_tuple(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={
+            CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_FORECAST_CONSERVATIVE,
+            CONF_FORECAST_SENSOR: _FORECAST_ENTITY,
+            CONF_FORECAST_CONFIDENCE: 100,
+        })
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=6000.0, house=1500.0, ev=300.0)
+        _set_forecast_state(coord, "9000.0")
+        surplus, production, house, ev = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert production == pytest.approx(6000.0)
+        assert house == pytest.approx(1500.0)
+        assert ev == pytest.approx(300.0)
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(7200.0)  # 9 000 − 1 500 − 300
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# _get_solar_excess_w — baseline profiles (sanity checks)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+class TestBaselineProfiles:
+    """Conservative and All Surplus profiles still work correctly."""
+
+    def test_conservative_subtracts_all_loads(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=8000.0, house=2000.0, ev=1000.0)
+        surplus, production, house, ev = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(5000.0)
+        assert production == pytest.approx(8000.0)
+
+    def test_all_surplus_ignores_loads(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_ALL_SURPLUS})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=8000.0, house=3000.0, ev=2000.0)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(8000.0)
+
+    def test_unknown_profile_falls_back_to_conservative(self):
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: "not_a_real_profile"})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=7000.0, house=1000.0, ev=500.0)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(5500.0)
+
+    def test_production_unavailable_returns_none_surplus(self):
+        """When the production sensor is unavailable, surplus is None."""
+        coord = _coord(options={CONF_CHARGING_PROFILE: CHARGING_PROFILE_CONSERVATIVE})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=None, house=1000.0, ev=200.0)
+        surplus, production, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus is None
+        assert production is None
+
+    def test_default_profile_is_conservative(self):
+        """With no charging_profile option, Conservative is used."""
+        coord = _coord(options={})
+        _set_rolling(coord, production=5000.0, house=1500.0, ev=0.0)
+        surplus, *_ = coord._get_solar_excess_w()
+        assert surplus == pytest.approx(3500.0)